The Age of Endemic Ebola

Highlights

Total Cases in 2018: 341

Total Deaths in 2018: 215

Case Fatality Rate: 63%

Pandemic Threat Level: 7/10

This week, I’d like to talk about Ebola. I don’t know if you knew this- but right now there is an objectively worse outbreak of the disease going on than what we saw in 2014 when it infected almost 30,000 people across West Africa. I’m sure many of you remember this outbreak. It was the first time the hemorrhagic fever had been seen on such a massive scale, killing anywhere between 60 and 90 percent of all it infected.

The symptoms of Ebola are not for the faint of heart. It begins with flu like symptoms, making it difficult to diagnose at the beginning. Then, as the disease progresses, it can lead to vomiting, diarrhea, and stomach pain. Most startling, however, is the final stages of the disease. You see, by the end, the victim’s organs have begun to liquefy causing blood to pour out of every orifice of their body before they are finally allowed to succumb to death. During all of the stages, the disease is contagious to anyone who comes into contact with the bodily fluids of the infected.

When Ebola hit West Africa in 2014, the scale of the outbreak was unprecedented. World Health Organizations barely knew how to handle it, and in fact have stated numerous times since then that they did not handle it as well as they could have. The outbreak led to some cases spilling over to the United Kingdom, the United States, Spain, Mali, as well as others. Eventually, over two years later, the disease disappeared back into the forest and health organizations declared the outbreak over.

The current outbreak has shown up in the Congo, in an area that was no stranger to the disease. So far, it’s infected over 300 people.  Compared to 30,000 people, this number seems frightfully low to even consider this a serious outbreak. However, there is one key difference between this outbreak and any other Ebola outbreak that has occurred before this.

Historically, Ebola outbreaks always have a source. Even when epidemiologists were tracking the 2014 Ebola outbreak, each cluster was connected to another cluster. Let me explain how this works- using the 2014 outbreak as the example. In 2013, an 18 month old boy in Guinea contracted Ebola virus and died in late December. It would be almost an entire year before he was identified as the source of the outbreak. Working backwards through disease serotyping and interviews, epidemiologists were able to trace the path of the outbreak (through thousands of infected) to determine that the entire outbreak had been started by this young child. When jumping from one location to another, or from one population to another, epidemiologists are often able to follow the path a disease travels. So, as mother gives it to son, son gives it to friend, friend to cousin, cousin to shop owner, and so on, epidemiologists are often only a few steps behind course. Such investigative work is often responsible for developing the best measures to put into place to prevent the disease from spreading further.

However, for the first time ever, this isn’t the case for the current Congo outbreak. In fact, almost a third of all new cases that healthcare workers are seeing are coming from unknown origins. They are completely untraceable. Every day in the Congo, daily cases are steady with no sign of decreasing any time soon, and many of them are showing no connections with known sources. The fact that many cases are untraceable proves that we are entering a new era of Ebola outbreaks- the era of endemic Ebola. Soon, it won’t be a matter of responding to new outbreaks- efforts will instead need to be placed on controlling the never ending cases of infected.

It takes the transmission of infected bodily fluids to spread the virus, and Ebola cannot be spread from one person to another when the infected person shows no signs or symptoms of having the disease. That being said, the virus can survive inside its host for 2-21 days before an infected person may began exhibiting signs and symptoms. In the 21^st century, a person can be anywhere they want to be in the world in a lot less than 21 days, and without being able to track the disease- it’s only a matter of time before we’ll see Ebola show up naturally outside of Africa.

I gave this disease a 7/10. In 2014, when rating the same virus, I would have probably given a 5/10 or 6/10 because of its traceability. One of the resources we have that we didn’t have in 2014 is the emergence of an Ebola vaccine. The administration of the vaccination to 30,000 people in the Congo is widely accepted as the main reason why the numbers of infected aren’t higher. However, the Ebola vaccination is still in its human trials, and is only being used in the Congo in a “compassionate use” capacity in an attempt to curb the current outbreak (where the plan is working). This means that the vaccine is also only given to patients who have had direct contact with the disease or diseased patient. Well, those and healthcare workers. So, while this does help to limit the spread of the virus among known routes, it still leaves a big question over the “untraceable” outbreaks.

Ebola is about to be at a larger turning point than we could have ever expected. It’s possible we are hitting an age when outbreaks of Ebola are no longer newsworthy and are considered common- much like each new malaria or cholera outbreak. Regardless of the path Ebola takes, we should never forget the bravery and selflessness of the healthcare workers who work tirelessly in often overcrowded and underfunded facilities to give help to those suffering. Each one of them does so at great personal risk to their own health- and in many cases are separated from their families while they do so. Our best hope now lies with the completion of the human trials and an effective deployment of the vaccine.

25 Critical Facts About Ebola- A rebuttal for Fear Mongering Propaganda

In response to the following article:

http://www.americasfreedomfighters.com/2014/08/03/25-critical-facts-about-the-ebola-outbreak-that-every-american-should-know/

I wrote the following in order to try and remove some of the fear-mongering about EBV. To be clear, it is still a dangerous and tragic disease, but the propaganda that is being sent out is only going to lead to hysteria. 

 Sorry for any typos… took me a few hours to write up…. 

#1 As the chart below demonstrates, the spread of Ebola is starting to become exponential…

                This is a normal occurrence for any outbreak…. The disease will peak at some point before it starts to drop off. This is called the epidemic curve. This is nothing different from any other outbreak in the history of outbreaks.

#2 This is already the worst Ebola outbreak in recorded history by far.

                This is absolutely right. It is a scary disease, and part of the reason why it’s so largely out of control is because of the location of its outbreak. This is the first time Ebola has shown up in West Africa. West Africa is a lot more densely populated than some of the tribal areas it has hit in the past. So, therefore, there are a lot more people to infect. It’s believed to have found its way to West Africa in part to deforestation.

#3 The head of the World Health Organization says that this outbreak “is moving faster than our efforts to control it“.

                This is also true. Take a look at West Africa. They have a developing country infrastructure as well as limited health care workers to help. The people there are terrified of the health care workers and are hiding from them. Many of them are leaving dead bodies where they lie, and if they don’t leave them they are burying and cleaning the family members themselves. As you probably know, (or don’t), the bodies are still contagious after death. They aren’t reporting the outbreaks that do happen because they are afraid of being taken away from their family members. The sick are being housed in little more than shacks with many people to one room. On top of that, the fruit bats (which are considered carriers) are often a cheap and normal staple of their diet, which is only helping to further spread the disease.  

#4 The head of Doctors Without Borders says that this outbreak is “out of control“.

                This is repetitive. See statement 3.

#5 So far, more than 100 health workers that were on the front lines fighting the virus have ended up contracting Ebola themselves.  This is happening despite the fact that they go to extraordinary lengths to keep from getting the disease.

                This is true as well. When an Ebola outbreak happens, and this has been the case for every outbreak since it was discovered in the 70’s, the most commonly infected are family members and health care workers. They do go to great lengths to defend themselves against the disease, however, the resources are limited. The most they can do is create what are known as clothing barriers… which are basically gloves, face masks, eye protection and gown. However, again, the situation is less than ideal in Africa. You ever try getting completely clean while camping? Imagine it’s like that except you’re trying to prevent a nanometer of virus from landing on you.

#6 There is no cure for Ebola.

                This is also true. There is no cure for Ebola. However, in the US we have given the ebola-infected doctors an experimental drug. Also, there is a talk of a vaccine being released next year. *Fingers Crossed*

#7 The death rate for this current Ebola outbreak is over 50 percent, and experts say that it can kill “up to 90% of those infected“.

                The death rate of this EBV (Ebola Virus) outbreak is right at 60%. The strain that this particular EBV comes from is known as the Zaire strain which had a death rate of 90%. This is the bad kind of EBV… and this outbreak is a pretty scary one.

#8 The incubation rate for Ebola ranges from two days to 21 days.  Therefore, someone can be carrying it around for up to three weeks without even knowing it.

                This is true as well, however, it only becomes contagious once symptoms start to show.

#9 For the first time ever, human Ebola patients are being brought to the United States.  And as Paul Craig Roberts so aptly put it the other day, all it would take is “one cough, one sneeze, one drop of saliva, and the virus is loose“.

                And no, it doesn’t take one cough or one sneeze. Barely even a drop of Saliva. It is mostly present in the bodily wastes and blood. Luckily, these doctors have been brought to the hospital that is the most capable of caring for this level of virus. They have rooms made for this, and they are completely cut off from anyone else. The levels of protection found in the US against spreading the virus are much better than the best levels you could find in West Africa. Since returning home, one doctor is already showing signs of improvement.

#10 This has already potentially happened in the United Kingdom.  A woman reportedly collapsed and later died on Saturday after she got off of a flight from Sierra Leone at Gatwick Airport.

                This is a no. The woman was tested for, and did not, have Ebola.

#11 A study conducted in 2012 proved that Ebola could be transmitted between pigs and monkeys that were in separate cages and that never made physical contact.

                Not pigs, just monkeys. It was Reston EBV. That was only one particular strain that was discovered to be an airborne strain. This particular strain, however, did not affect humans, only the monkeys. It has been postulated that one of the human strains could one day become airborne… and that is true. In 1918, the flu swept through and killed more people worldwide in one year than WWI did in its entirety. General consensus is that we need to worry about the next flu pandemic before we really start to panic over Ebola.

#12 This is a new strain of Ebola, so what we know about other strains of Ebola may not necessarily apply to this strain of Ebola.

                Except that there are NUMEROUS strains of EBV, one of them being the Reston Strain I mentioned earlier. The only difference between any of them is the death rate. Also, this strain is VERY close to the Zaire strain…. And like I mentioned, the Zaire strain kills 90% of the people it infects. So, if anything, this particular strain is only weaker than the Zaire strain.

#13 Barack Obama has just signed an executive order that gives the federal government the power to apprehend and detain Americans that show symptoms of “diseases that are associated with fever and signs and symptoms of pneumonia or other respiratory illness, are capable of being transmitted from person to person, and that either are causing, or have the potential to cause, a pandemic, or, upon infection, are highly likely to cause mortality or serious morbidity if not properly controlled.”

                This is actually pretty redundant… the CDC already has what’s known as the “National Quarantine Act.” This essentially is the same thing. CDC can take federal control of quarantine. And if an outbreak were to happen, how do you think we’d contain it? If someone really had Ebola in the US, do you think they should be allowed to run around infecting other people? This is another reason why an outbreak would be unlikely to happen here. That’s also why we have a list of “reportable disease in the US,” to help epidemiologists here have an easier time tracking diseases that could potentially cause outbrea’ks.

#14 And as I noted the other day, federal law already permits “the apprehension and examination of any individual reasonably believed to be infected with a communicable disease”.

                See above. Quarantine laws. They are necessary to prevent outbreaks, which is what this whole article is freaking out about anyway. Seriously, this guy is panicking about an Ebola pandemic, but then complains about quarantine measures?

#15 According to the CDC, there are 20 quarantine centers around the country that are prepared to potentially receive Ebola patients…

                Well, yeah… again I ask…. How do you think you stop an outbreak? These quarantine stations have been used to treat all sorts of communicable diseases. The last time that quarantine was used on a large scale, however, was during the 1918 flu pandemic. Which, did I mention millions died?

#16 The CDC has set up an Ebola “quarantine station” at LAX in order to help prevent the spread of the virus.

                Again… precautions. I suppose if no precautions were made at all this author would complain about how our administration was doing nothing to prevent an outbreak. The precautions are being made to MAKE SURE it doesn’t get into the US. And it’s because of precautions like this that, again, an outbreak is very unlikely here.

#17 The largest health emergency drill in New York City history was conducted on Friday.

                And? It was a biological attack drill. Not an “Ermahgad! Ebola is here!” drill. We have Earthquake drills in CA. We should do biological attack drills all over the country since that is still a very likely mode of attack on us. But more likely with smallpox than anything else.

#18 The federal government will begin testing an “experimental Ebola vaccine” on humans in September.

1. How do you think vaccinations get made? You make the vaccine, you do the animal trials, then you do the human trials. I fail to see how this is an argument for or against anything. By the time vaccinations get to human trials, the vaccines are pretty much safe. This is a great thing, that we have gotten to human trials. It’s a chance against any future outbreaks.

#19 We are being told that the reason why we don’t have an Ebola vaccine already is due to the hesitation of the pharmaceutical industry to invest in a disease that has “only affected people in Africa“.

                So, I had to look this one up because I had never heard I before. According to media, there is no money in an Ebola vaccine. I can believe this… seeing as how we are a country that often cuts money to education and scientific research.

                However, on top of that, Ebola is a filovirus, which is a rare family that is made of RNA instead of DNA. Because of this, there are a lot of differences in this virus (and Marburg for that matter) than other viruses that make is difficult to vaccinate again. Here is the link to a scientific paper that will explain it better:

http://jvi.asm.org/content/77/18/9733

#20 Researchers from Tulane University have been active for several years in the very same areas where this Ebola outbreak began.  One of the stated purposes of this research was to study “the future use of fever-viruses as bioweapons“.

                This is paranoid conjecture, and I can’t find an actual source on it. It’s possible they were doing biowar research, but most likely defensive since it is believed that others may use Ebola against us. We are known to dabble in making bioweapons and have even used them against other countries in the past. In fact, we even had a bioweapons department for 27 years… before FDR closed it down. Whether there is still one is unknown. Ebola’s greatest weakness is the fact that is kills too quickly, which doesn’t actually make it a very good bioweapon.

However, this has nothing to do with the current outbreak.

#21 According to the Ministry of Health and Sanitation in Sierra Leone, researchers from Tulane University have been asked “to stop Ebola testing during the current Ebola outbreak“.  What in the world does that mean?

                Again, I don’t really know anything about this. But the Tulane students are currently helping with the outbreak. Not sure if this article is trying to make some sort of conspiracy theory or what… but this has nothing to do with the current outbreak, considering it moved from Guinea to Sierra Leone, not the other way around.

#22 The Navy Times says that the U.S. military has been interested in studying Ebola “as a potential biological weapon” since the 1970s…

1. Duh. Have you met our Department of Defense? That was also when Russia had a very large bioweapons department. It was like a great arms race but for viruses instead. Every country wants to have the biggest, baddest weapons

Filoviruses like Ebola have been of interest to the Pentagon since the late 1970s, mainly because Ebola and its fellow viruses have high mortality rates — in the current outbreak, roughly 60 percent to 72 percent of those who have contracted the disease have died — and its stable nature in aerosol make it attractive as a potential biological weapon.

1. Again, nothing to do with the current outbreak. This has been studied for a while now, and is nothing new. This “journalist” did not just figure this out. This has not been a secret at all. It makes an unlikely one however because of how quickly it kills and how hard it is for the terrorist to get and maintain samples of.

#23 The CDC actually owns a patent on one particular strain of the Ebola virus…

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control owns a patent on a particular strain of Ebola known as “EboBun.” It’s patent No. CA2741523A1 and it was awarded in 2010.

It is being reported that this is not the same strain that is currently being transmitted in Africa, but it is interesting to note nonetheless.  And why would the CDC want “ownership” of a strain of the Ebola virus in the first place?

                There are many different strains of Ebola (Below). EboBun is BDBV. It was discovered in Uganda. As you can see, these are all named after where they are found.

Bundibugyo ebolavirus (BDBV)

Zaire ebolavirus (EBOV)

Reston ebolavirus (RESTV)

Sudan ebolavirus (SUDV)

Taï Forest ebolavirus (TAFV).

I have no idea why the CDC patented a type. It seems odd to me, but I don’t really care. Might be because  any vaccine made from it might fall under the same patent and therefore owned by the US. It has nothing to do with the current outbreak, though.  

#24 The CDC has just put up a brand new webpage entitled “Infection Prevention and Control Recommendations for Hospitalized Patients with Known or Suspected Ebola Hemorrhagic Fever in U.S. Hospitals“

                I don’t know how many times I have to say precautions. So. Precautions. They are prepared incase anything does happen. People own guns for self-defense, doesn’t mean they’ll ever need to use it.

#25 The World Health Organization has launched a 100 million dollar response plan to fight this Ebola outbreak.  Others don’t seem so alarmed.  For example, Barack Obama is getting ready to take a “16 day Martha’s Vineyard vacation“.

                Yes, the WORLD Health Organization, which is responsible for the public health of every country, not just the rich ones is trying to help fight EBV in West Africa because is a MAJOR public health emergency. Incidentally, the EBV outbreak which has going on since January was barely made mention in the media until the US “risked everyone” by bringing to patients to the US. And as the mantra in the US goes, “Don’t spend money elsewhere when we have our own people to worry about over here.”

I did not include any sources in this, but I am more than happy to supply them on request.